supply and demand analysis of cement industry in 2017-百家乐凯发k8

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supply and demand analysis of cement industry in 2017

发布于2017-05-26 15:35 点击:次
author: anonymous
   1.1 infrastructure construction continued to force
   according to the 13th five-year plan released in 2016 2017, the state will continue to strengthen investment in infrastructure, improve the outline of modern integrated transport system, transport mileage of high-speed railway to increase from the current 22 thousand km to 30 thousand km, will cover more than 80% big city, 30 thousand kilometers of new highway, improve the city traffic network and the rural area; the establishment of new urbanization, the city level increased from the current 56.1% to 60%. as everyone knows, the cement is the elementary consumables of the infrastructure construction, the high level of infrastructure investment, will enhance the overall level of demand for cement, so 2017 cement demand still has the support, there will be no major fluctuations.
   in may of the same year, the national development and reform commission jointly issued by the ministry of transportation "plan" action for major construction of transportation infrastructure for three years, the specific investment 13th five-year planning in building infrastructure, especially transportation investment. in 2016 -2018 will focus on promoting the national railway, highway, waterway, airport, city rail transit project 303, involving a total investment of about 4 trillion and 700 billion yuan, to 2017 a total of 92 projects, total investment of 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan. since the end of 11, the national development and reform commission again approved a large number of intensive fixed asset investment projects, investment in various types of fixed assets as high as several billion yuan. although the growth rate of china's fixed asset investment has been increasing steadily, there is still great potential in the infrastructure and public services, and the proportion of investment in these areas will be further increased in 2017. cement is a demand sensitive product, driven by fixed asset investment, and a series of concrete infrastructure projects have laid the foundation for cement demand for 17 years.
figure 1: the cumulative growth of cement production, the cumulative growth of new real estate construction interviews and fixed assets investment completed growth (%)

source: national bureau of statistics
   1.2 the real estate construction market steadily
   chinese 2016 real estate market has experienced two different stages. at the beginning of the year, with the increase of real estate inventory pressure, the government has introduced favorable policies, but in the middle of 16 years with increasing pressure on housing prices, october golden week, the city throughout the introduction of intensive real estate macro-control policies, prices can be inhibited, the effect of the policy immediately appeared. in the 11 hot cities nationwide, turnover in october was 15% lower than in september.
   in china, more and more strong financial attributes of residential, chinese is a traditional high savings rate, but in recent years, the increase of inflation, residents tend to buy the high hedge financial products. from the historical point of view, the price has been in a rising channel, the residential property to meet the investment needs of the residents just, although because of policy factors, the market sentiment is still very strong, but as long as the policy slightly loose, a large number of private capital into the real estate market will again.
   at the same time for real estate developers, the development of investment will not with the market cooling significantly downward. at the end of 2016, the country had sold the construction area of 7 billion 620 million square meters at the end of the year, with the highest historical value. although with the cooling real estate market, the real estate enterprises there is a big sales pressure, but the cost compared to the high prices, only accounts for a very low proportion, so even if the real estate market in late 16 has cooled, it will not lead to a large number of pre shutdown, 2017 real estate construction steadily fall.
   1.3 new capacity pressure relief, industrial structure gradually optimization
   according to may 2016 the state council issued document no. 34 requirements, strengthen the supply side structural reform, the supply and demand mechanism of the market forced the pressure to cut overcapacity, and at the end of 2020 and the new record is prohibited to expand new project of cement clinker production capacity, relying on the current encourage clinker production line upgrade without expanding capacity next, the active use of new technologies for production of high quality products, reduce the pollution of the environment. at the same time, enterprises are required to voluntarily stop producing 32.5 grade cement products, with the emphasis on producing cement products of grade 42.5 or higher.
   chinese cement research institute according to preliminary statistics, in 2016 the national ignition cement clinker production line of a total of 20, total new ignition clinker production capacity of 25 million 823 thousand tons, 21 million 630 thousand tons less than in 2014, a decline of 45.3%, for four consecutive years showed a decreasing trend, to some extent reduce the status of cement industry overcapacity, but the national cement production capacity surplus situation in a certain period of time will still exist, the government ban to ensure a certain period in the future overcapacity will not continue to expand.
   1.4 corporate mergers and acquisitions tend to combination
   relative to the frequent mergers and acquisitions over the years, only 2016 of the actual occurrence of the merger and reorganization of 5, far less than the number of merger cases occurred in previous years, but does not involve corporate mergers and acquisitions of small enterprises, is the basic joint reorganization between large enterprises mergers and acquisitions. the mergers and acquisitions of enterprises involved in half of all 2015 clinker production capacity of the top ten enterprises, china building materials and materials restructuring, jinyu jidong restructuring more than 30 subsidiaries to jidong cement, huaxin china and lafarge merger, acquisition of conch chaodong cement, chemical and thailand purchase tianshan shares its 2 cement enterprises. powerful combination will help improve the concentration of industries, make use of the advantages of large enterprises, stabilize market supply and prices, and adopt new technologies to rebuild production lines without expanding capacity.
figure 2: m & a number of cases (cases)

source: china cement net, china cement research institute