cement industry overall market outlook in 2016-百家乐凯发k8

project news

cement industry overall market outlook in 2016

发布于2017-05-26 14:29 点击:次
author: anonymous
   1.1 external macroeconomic environment
   in 2016, involved in the trade protectionism, reverse the trend of globalization and the european economic and political crisis, the global economy continues to slump, although chinese economic pressure in the downstream channel, but continue to maintain steady growth, the cumulative annual gdp growth is expected to reach 6.7%, and maintained a sustained global economic growth in the first place.
   the first 11 months of this year, the total investment in fixed assets reached 53 trillion and 850 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%; real estate investment completed 9 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, higher than the growth rate of 5.2 percentage points over the same period last year. thanks to the force of the two major traditional markets, cement demand in 2016 has improved significantly. according to the national bureau of statistics data, cement production and marketing rate also improved than in 2015, ending inventory compared to the beginning of a slight reduction.
figure 1:2014-2016 cement current output (10000 tons) and year-on-year growth (%)
source: national bureau of statistics
   so in 2016 negative growth of the cement industry in 2015 changed the "decadent" market, since march this year after the cement production trend to maintain rapid and stable growth momentum, remove 7,8 in the traditional high temperature season, the rest of the month were maintained at 2.5%~3.5% growth interval. in the first 11 months of this year, the total output of cement has reached 22.06 tons, which is only 0.69 tons less than the highest level in the same period in 2014, and 2016 tons of cement output is expected to be realized by the year of 24~24.2.
   1.2 north china, east china, south central, southwest production rose year by year, northwest, northeast region continued to fall slightly
   from the point of view of the subregion, in 2016 all regions except the northeast and northwest still maintained negative growth, while the rest of the region had a relatively high growth rate relative to 2015, and realized a change from negative to positive. the best performance in          north china, to achieve high growth in the year 8.85%, followed by the southwest, also has a high growth of 8.54%, an increase of 2.5% in central and southern regions of east china, although only 0.99% of the increase, but compared to the negative growth of -5% last year, is also stopped production continues to decline trend.
   in northeast china, all levels of government to continue efforts yajian cement production, promote industrial upgrading, liaoning province is prohibited for new capacity, the use of the internet platform to drive industry reform and innovation, jilin province plans to 2 years compressed 13 million tons of cement production capacity, denitration dust transformation of the cement industry in heilongjiang province, so even if the price of production the whole city cement picks up, the northeast region is still negative growth in the range of -4.34%, but compared to 2015 the growth rate of -20.58%, still have greatly improved.
figure 2: cement production growth in all regions (%)

source: china cement net, china cement research institute
   from the provinces of tianjin, output growth, hebei, shanxi, inner mongolia, heilongjiang, shandong, hubei, hunan, guangdong, sichuan, yunnan, qinghai, 15 years of negative growth in the 13 provinces of ningxia reversed, at an average annual rate of 2016 achieved positive growth; tibet, yunnan, hebei, ningxia, heilongjiang, guangxi, guizhou these seven provinces achieved more than 8% growth; the tibet is still in the rapid growth of 33.6% to maintain the leading position of the first echelon, but also by the yunnan high growth in 2015 to 18.8% in 2016 the reversal of -3.27%.
figure 3: annual growth of cement in all provinces (%)

source: national bureau of statistics, china cement net, china cement research institute
   1.3  2016 years, cement prices all the way up
   cement prices in 2015 fell all the way down to the lowest value since the past 4 years of history, after entering in 2016, cement prices began to reverse the adjustment in 5 at the end of 2016, up about 5%, with the high temperature season, cement prices again callback, a decrease of approximately 2.4%, after entering in august, cement prices rise into the channel in a way, by the end of december 30, 2016, cement prices stride forward singing militant songs, compared with the beginning of 2016, has risen 29.1%.
figure 4:2015-2016 cement index chart

source: china cement net, china cement research institute
   at the beginning of 2016, the prices of raw materials, such as coal, iron ore and papermaking raw materials began to rise, and then spread to the whole industrial field. in september of the same year, ppi finally reversed in a negative growth for 4 years, subject to capacity, strengthen the effect of supply side structure of policy factors such as coal, steel and other industrial raw material prices continue to soar, the cement industry due to rising costs and the overall industrial product prices trend driven by the impact, the second half of the year prices remain high the growth rate of.
figure 5.2016 provinces and municipalities cement prices (yuan) and year on year growth (%)

source: national bureau of statistics, china cement net, china cement research institute
   although the overall cement prices in 2016 rose, but specific to various provinces and cities, provinces and cities cement prices aiba diameter, inner mongolia, liaoning, jilin, heilongjiang 4 provinces cement price fluctuation, inflation is below 10%, while jiangsu, shaanxi, shandong, hebei, guizhou, tianjin, henan, hainan. at the end of 9 provinces and cities tibet cement prices have more than 35% growth over the year, especially in henan province, compared with the beginning of the end of cement prices rose 69%, hebei and guizhou two provinces have nearly rose about 50%. remove the increase in single price, tibet cement prices still maintained the highest price over 800 yuan per ton, while inner mongolia and liaoning cement prices are the lowest level in the country, were less than 250 yuan per ton, the price fluctuation is minimal compared with the beginning.
   1.4 cement sales revenue fell, cement profits rebounded over 2015
in 2016, cement annual sales fell by a larger margin than in 15 years, and the total sales revenue reached 784 billion 540 million yuan in november, down 2.91% year on year. compared with the cement sales revenue continued to decline, cement sales profits show a low to high before two distinct trends, 16 years ago, 7 months of national cement prices although there is a small recovery, but subject to the cement sales decline, the overall industry profits fall, by the end of july, the national cement sales profit 13 billion 680 million yuan, down 10.24% compared to the same period last year; july off-season, the rapid rise in the price of cement, by the end of december 2016, the highest value has been exceeded, cement profits began over the same period last year in august, by the end of november, has achieved sales profit of 42 billion 300 million yuan, far exceeding the total annual profit of 32 billion 970 million yuan last year the whole year.
figure 6:2011-2016 years cement sales revenue (100 million yuan) and profits (100 million yuan)

source: national bureau of statistics, china cement net, china cement research institute