2017 will be a year of opportunities and challenges for the cement industry. first of all, the government will continue to strengthen infrastructure construction investment, transportation trillion investment will strongly stimulate the market for building materials, cement as a base material infrastructure, demand for natural demand; at the end of 2016, the real estate market ushered in a wave of cooling, but the high housing prices and the highest level in the history of the stock has not started the area. don't let the real estate housing prices sharply reduced the speed of the construction, and chinese economy is facing greater downward pressure, the government regulation of the real estate industry will be controlled within a reasonable degree, by means of promoting the healthy development of the real estate enterprises, so the real estate situation in 2017 will not change radically, real estate construction is expected in 2017 will continue to maintain the momentum of development is relatively stable, so the real estate market demand for cement in 2017 will not have too big fluctuation.
2016, the state council issued a document requiring enterprises to take the initiative to stop the production of 32.5 grade cement products, china's current 32.5 grade cement products still occupy a major share of the market, but the low grade cement products do not meet the requirements of high strength of modern architecture, in the production of cement products 32.5 grades, upgrading faced a lot of production line; at the same time, negatively related to the cement products demand and the grade of cement, the cement strength grade is high, the same project required less consumption of cement products, this also means that when the cement products enhance the level, the overall market demand will reduce the consumption of cement. however, the cement products enhance the level than not happen overnight, it will continue for a longer period of time, in the short term, low level of the 32.5 cement products will continue to occupy the main market, the market share will gradually decline.
after a few years ago, the cement enterprise merger and reorganization, concentrated cement enterprise industry has become increasingly high, the number of mergers and acquisitions in 2016 cement enterprises has significantly reduced than in previous years, only 5, this shows that small businesses have been struggling in the cement market, future will be more of a big business play a leading role in the cement industry, the cement market mergers and acquisitions in 2017 will continue in 2016 to continue the momentum, in between enterprises, to further strengthen the industry concentration. when the industrial concentration is higher and higher, for the maintenance of price considerations, the enterprise will take the initiative to reduce the cement production, in order to maintain the balance of supply and demand, especially in the chinese cement industry was in the overcapacity situation.
serious air pollution has not been well improved in 2016, is expected to control the state will further strengthen environmental protection, the beijing tianjin hebei region, the yangtze river delta region due to the air pollution time to stop the kiln will more than 2016 increase, which will yield some impact on cement.
the above factors, we expect the cement production in 2017 on the whole and 2016 annual total output at the same time, according to the model calculation, the cement production in 2017 of about 24.21 tons, down 23.8 tons -24.6 tons in the floating range.
